CATL Forecasts and Plans

Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of CATL, said that 50% of China’s heavy-duty truck sales could be electric vehicles by 2028.

CATL has unveiled a solution for swapping batteries for heavy-duty trucks, Qiji Battery Swap. The company plans to build a network of battery swap stations that will cover 80% of China’s highways by 2030. The time for a complete battery pack replacement should not exceed five minutes.

A new No. 75 swappable battery pack designed for heavy-duty trucks was unveiled at the presentation.

Cooperation with Sinopec

In April 2024, CATL entered into an agreement with Sinopec, China’s largest oil refining company, to build battery swap stations. At least 500 stations are planned to be built in 2024, and their number may reach 10,000 in the long term.

Environmental aspect

Sun Fengchun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, noted that heavy trucks account for 3% of the total number of vehicles, but they account for 43% of carbon emissions from road traffic. Electrification of this segment is seen as a key element in achieving the “double carbon” strategy (peak CO₂ emissions by 2030, carbon neutrality by 2060).

Electric vehicle market dynamics

In 2024, the share of electric vehicles in retail sales of passenger cars in China approached 50%. In the freight transport segment, the share of electric vehicles was 10%.

Impact on Oil Consumption

According to the Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI) of CNPC, published in January 2024, China’s oil consumption has entered a plateau stage, and demand for petroleum products is declining. It is predicted that China’s oil consumption will peak in 2024.

The main factors driving the decline in oil demand are:

• Growing sales of electric vehicles.
• Increasing share of heavy-duty vehicles running on liquefied natural gas (LNG).

CNPC predicts that 20,000 gas stations may be closed in China by 2030 due to declining consumption of petroleum products.

According to preliminary data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, crude oil consumption in the country fell by 1.2% in 2024.

Infrastructure development

At the end of 2024, China had:

• 12.818 million charging stations.
• 4,443 battery swapping stations.

In 2022, CATL launched China’s first battery swapping station for heavy trucks. Geely also launched similar stations for heavy-duty vehicles in the same year.

Conclusion

The electrification of China’s truck industry is advancing in line with government environmental and energy strategies. The growth of electric trucks and the expansion of battery swapping infrastructure could accelerate the country’s decline in oil consumption.