General trends

The net increase in coal generation capacity in 2024 was +18.8 GW, the lowest figure in decades.

For comparison: the increase in renewable energy capacity in 2023 (according to IRENA) is 585 GW (30 times more).

• Commissioning of new coal-fired thermal power plants: 44.1 GW (minimum in 20 years).
• Decommissioning of old capacity: 25.2 GW.
• Total global coal generation capacity reached 2,175 GW (+13% since 2015, the year the Paris Agreement was adopted).

The role of China and India

China introduced 30.5 GW (69% of global commissioning), while the rest of the world reduced capacity by 9.2 GW. China to start construction on record 94 GW of coal-fired power plants in 2024 (highest since 2015). This is the result of a surge in permitting activity in 2022–23.

If the trend continues, China may not deliver on Xi Jinping’s promise to peak coal consumption by 2025.
CNPC forecast: China’s coal will peak in 2028.
India proposed 38 GW of new coal projects (a record), but net growth was +5.6 GW.

Coal power declines outside China and India

Outside China and India, coal-fired power projects have been declining for the 10th year in a row:

• In 2015 – 445 GW in development.
• In 2024 – 80 GW. The EU and the US continue to close coal plants:
• In the EU, solar generation overtook coal for the first time in 2024.

Under Trump (2017–2021), the US closed more coal capacity than under Obama and Biden.

Conclusions

China and India remain the drivers of coal power growth, while the rest of the world is cutting capacity.
Record construction rates in China threaten climate goals (the peak of coal may shift to 2028).
Renewable energy is developing much faster: 30 times more capacity was commissioned in a year than coal.

The EU and the US continue to dismantle coal, while solar energy in Europe is already overtaking coal.

Prospects

If China and India do not change course, global climate goals (including 1.5°C) will be at risk.
In the rest of the world, coal power will continue to decline due to competition from renewables and gas, as well as climate regulation.