EV sales growth in 2024

• Overall growth: +28% (17.5 million units)
• Fully electric (BEV): 11 million
• Plug-in hybrid (PHEV): 6.5 million
• Key market: China (58% BEV, 75% PHEV)

Conclusion: China maintains leadership, but sales growth in other regions (Europe, US, emerging markets) is accelerating.

Impact on the oil market

• ​​Oil savings in 2024: 1 million bbl/d (vs. 700 thousand in 2023)
• Forecast for 2030: 3.6 million bbl/d (3.5% of current demand)
• Context: Global oil demand in 2024 is 102.9 million bbl/d, so the direct impact is still limited, but the trend is accelerating.

Acceleration factors:

• Trade wars (US and EU tariffs) are pushing Chinese manufacturers to expand into Asia, Africa and Latin America, where oil demand is growing.
• Lower battery costs and increased competition will make electric vehicles more affordable in developing countries.

Long-term consequences for the oil market

• ​​Pressure on prices: Even now, oil is unlikely to repeat the records of 2022 ($120+ per barrel).
• Additional factors:
• Development of hydrogen energy and synthetic fuel.
• Tightening of environmental standards (for example, a ban on internal combustion engines in the EU from 2035).

Conclusion

• Electric vehicles will not replace oil in the coming years, but will become a key factor in curbing demand growth.
• By 2030, savings of 3.6 million barrels per day can compensate for half of the projected demand growth (if it is ~7 million barrels per day).
• The main risk for oil is the accelerated transition of Asia to electric vehicles due to cheap Chinese models.

Bottom line: The oil market is entering an era of structural slowdown, but a crisis is not expected – demand will be supported by aviation, shipping and petrochemicals.