Key changes to the strategy

Lowering electrolysis targets:

• By 2030: from 6.5 GW → to 4.5 GW (-31%).
• By 2035: from >10 GW → to 8 GW (-20%).

Reasons for the revision:

• Slow uptake of hydrogen solutions in industry.
• Fierce international competition (especially from the US and China).
• Progress in alternative decarbonisation methods (e.g. direct electrification).
• High cost of green hydrogen (in the EU — €12–16/kg according to PBL).

Government support:

• €4 billion in subsidies until 2040 for R&D and infrastructure.
• Focus on localization of production (electrolyzers, fuel cells).

New calls for proposals:

• IDH2 (development of key hydrogen technologies).
• Synthetic fuels for aviation and shipping (industrial production by 2030).
• Hydrogen transport (stimulating demand for light commercial vehicles).

Context: problems of the hydrogen market in the EU

Unrealistic targets:

• BloombergNEF (2024): green hydrogen will remain expensive longer than expected.
• TotalEnergies: EU target (20 million tons of green H₂ by 2030) is unachievable.
• Westwood: only 17% of planned EU projects (12 GW out of 70 GW) will be implemented by 2030.

Infrastructure barriers:

• In 2023, the capacity of electrolyzers in the EU is only 216 MW.
• Lack of logistics, storage and stable demand.

Conclusions

France is adjusting plans, recognizing technological and market limitations.

The focus is shifting from scaling to:

• Technological sovereignty (reducing dependence on imports).
• Niche applications (aviation, maritime transport, heavy industry).

The EU as a whole is lagging behind global hydrogen ambitions due to:

• High costs (2-3 times more expensive than gray hydrogen).
• Competition with the US (IRA subsidies) and China (large-scale production).

Bottom line: France’s hydrogen strategy has become more pragmatic, but its success depends on its ability to reduce costs and create sustainable demand. For now, green hydrogen remains an experimental solution rather than a mass decarbonization tool.