Dynamics of coal capacity commissioning

Over the past decade, the rate of commissioning of new coal-fired power plants in China has decreased by a third. According to Global Energy Monitor, if in 2010-2014 the country commissioned 53.7 GW of coal-fired capacity annually, then in 2020-2024 this figure dropped to 35.8 GW per year.

A similar trend is observed in India, where the annual commissioning of coal-fired thermal power plants fell from 16.8 GW (2010-2014) to 4.4 GW (2020-2024).

Accelerated development of renewable energy sources

According to IRENA, global commissioning of wind and solar generation increased from 234 GW in 2021 to 565 GW in 2024. The main growth was provided by China, which accounted for 358 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2024. For comparison, the total installed capacity of power plants in the Unified Energy System of Russia at the end of 2024 was 263.7 GW.

In India, the installed capacity of renewable energy sources (including hydroelectric power plants) increased by 40% in 2021–2024, reaching 204 GW. The country’s government plans to increase this figure to 500 GW by 2030.

Impact on the coal market

The growth of renewable energy generation reduces China and India’s dependence on coal, including imported coal. This reduces the likelihood of the cancellation or easing of import duties, including duties on Russian coal.

Amid a global slowdown in demand for thermal coal, consumers face lower risks of shortages, which expands their options in choosing suppliers.

Trade Restrictions Factor

In the context of the aggravation of trade contradictions between the US and China, the latter can demonstrate flexibility in energy cooperation with Russia. However, this is more relevant to the gas sector, where the Power of Siberia 2 project can reduce China’s dependence on LNG imports.

There are no similar incentives in the coal market, since the growth of renewable energy sources and the decline in demand for coal reduce the need for additional import support measures.