Record Exports, but Slowing Growth

U.S. crude oil exports exceeded 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024, above the previous record set in 2023. However, the pace of export growth slowed sharply:

• 2024: +1%
• 2023: +14%
• 2022: +21%

This could be due to market saturation, lower demand, or logistical constraints.

L48 Production Rising, Alaska and Gulf of Mexico Declining

L48 production reached a record in November 2024 (+3% YoY), despite a decline in the rig count (efficiency gains). In Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, production decreased due to:

• Natural decline of fields,
• Hurricanes (impact on offshore production).

Main export destinations

Europe – 1.93 million barrels per day (+6% per year)

• The main growth driver is sanctions against Russian oil (since 2022).
• The Netherlands (Rotterdam) is the largest buyer (825 thousand barrels per day, +32%).
• Increased supplies to Germany, Great Britain, but a decrease to Spain, France, Italy.
• The inclusion of WTI in the Dated Brent benchmark (2023) also stimulated exports.

Asia and Oceania – 1.58 million barrels/day (–131 thousand barrels)

• China – sharp drop in demand (–53%, to 217 thousand barrels): Decline in transport fuel consumption and Increase in imports from Russia and Malaysia (likely cheaper alternatives).
• India – +32% (recovery from the decline in 2023).
• Growth in South Korea, Singapore, but not enough to offset the Chinese decline.

Historical context

• The United States is the world’s leader in oil production for the sixth year in a row.
• An all-time record was set in 2023, which will likely last into 2024.

Conclusions

1. Exports are growing, but the pace is slowing – market constraints or shifts in demand are possible.
2. Europe remains a key market due to sanctions against Russia and the integration of WTI into Brent.
3. China is reducing purchases in favor of Russian and Malaysian oil, which may be due to pricing policy.
4. India is increasing imports, which may become a new trend.
5. Production in the US remains high, but depends on regional factors (hurricanes, depletion of fields).

If the trend continues, in 2025 we can expect:

• Further growth in exports to Europe,
• Possible restoration of supplies to China (if the economy stabilizes),
• Increased competition with Russia and the Middle East in Asian markets.