The US Commerce Department has recommended prohibitive tariffs on solar panel imports from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia — key suppliers accounting for 79% of the US market.

What’s going on?

• Current tariff: 271.2% (starting in 2024).
• New proposed rate: up to 3,521% (effectively a complete ban).
• The decision must be approved by the International Trade Commission, but resistance is unlikely** — the Biden administration has restricted imports before.

Why is the US taking such a step?

• Protecting domestic production — an attempt to stimulate local industry (e.g. First Solar, Qcells).
• Fighting Chinese influence — most panels from Southeast Asia are produced by Chinese companies that have evaded China’s anti-dumping duties.
• Strategic autonomy — reducing dependence on imports in a critical sector.

Implications for the market

For the US:

• Short term: slowdown in solar energy growth (in 2023, imports covered 135% of commissioned capacity).
• Long term: possible increase in investment in domestic production and innovation (e.g. perovskite panels).

For Asia:

• Loss of the largest market (USA – 88% of exports for these countries).
• Reorientation to India, Africa, Latin America (where demand for renewable energy is growing).

For the global energy transition:

• Rising prices for solar panels in the US → temporary slowdown.
• Acceleration of technological development – ​​if the US can create competitive alternatives.

Conclusion: protectionism vs. green energy

The US is sacrificing short-term growth rates for long-term technological independence. However, success depends on whether American companies can replace cheap imports without losing competitiveness.

If so, it will accelerate the energy transition. If not, the US risks falling behind China and the EU, where solar panel production continues to scale.

The big question is: will this be a “protectionist boomerang” that hits US energy companies, or a strategic breakthrough? Time will tell.